Chapter 9. Forecasts

Table of Contents
9.1. Understanding forecasting
9.2. How the forecaster works
9.3. Configuring a forecast

The SysOrb Server is capable of generating forecasts on checks monitored by the system. Furthermore, warnings can be issued based on the forecasts, enabling administrators to receive notification of possible future incidents.

9.1. Understanding forecasting

It is important to understand that the nature of the forecasts that SysOrb generates, are in many ways similar to well known forecasts such has weather forecasts. This means, a forecast is an educated guess at what a possible future state of the system could be, based on careful analysis of past observations. Like a weather forecast, a the SysOrb Forecasts do have an uncertainty associated with them.

The reliability of the forecast is highly dependent on the nature of the data for which the forecast is generated. Some data series are by nature highly chaotic, and thus unpredictable. Other types of data lend themselves well to forecasting.

We recommend that you simply set up forecasting for the checks on which you would find it useful to have forecasting. Let the forecasting run for some days or weeks, keeping an eye on the forecasts every now and then. It will quickly be evident which data series are simply impossible to forecast reliably, forecasting on those can then be disabled.